A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
